Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.192004 0.229355 0.273710 0.330746 0.402833 0.491838 6.114981e-01
2025-08-03 0.153850 0.201482 0.264908 0.357404 0.492059 0.686200 9.974425e-01
2025-08-10 0.121561 0.171700 0.245195 0.364836 0.563016 0.894618 1.530851e+00
2025-08-17 0.095184 0.143264 0.219780 0.357100 0.613360 1.108620 2.251915e+00
2025-08-24 0.079642 0.127348 0.209556 0.372219 0.715869 1.493289 3.720769e+00
2025-08-31 0.067327 0.113662 0.199522 0.385772 0.830112 2.012536 6.320653e+00
2025-09-07 0.057819 0.102580 0.191309 0.401491 0.967393 2.753024 1.131272e+01
2025-09-14 0.050104 0.092984 0.183420 0.416250 1.122272 3.781370 2.122436e+01
2025-09-21 0.042596 0.082014 0.169535 0.411399 1.225837 4.842425 3.762639e+01
2025-09-28 0.033671 0.066158 0.140382 0.353891 1.118017 4.867522 4.695559e+01
2025-10-05 0.030076 0.061149 0.135676 0.365480 1.282073 6.698291 1.011489e+02
2025-10-12 0.027624 0.058175 0.135258 0.391228 1.542258 10.010403 2.817739e+02
2025-10-19 0.025275 0.055149 0.134516 0.419310 1.878406 15.757337 1.100966e+03
2025-10-26 0.022916 0.051585 0.131334 0.438456 2.219462 24.291791 5.923825e+03
2025-11-02 0.020308 0.046826 0.123284 0.434759 2.435213 33.814788 4.041542e+04
2025-11-09 0.017758 0.041711 0.112713 0.415056 2.524460 43.113523 4.381372e+05
2025-11-16 0.016185 0.038938 0.108874 0.424743 2.893541 67.175360 3.077256e+10
2025-11-23 0.014801 0.036414 0.105149 0.433602 3.307026 107.342920 NaN
2025-11-30 0.013642 0.034300 0.102243 0.445794 3.824735 182.689590 NaN
2025-12-07 0.012613 0.032369 0.099440 0.457581 4.417532 325.307790 NaN
2025-12-14 0.011455 0.029829 0.093644 0.448195 4.729147 500.454283 NaN
2025-12-21 0.009801 0.025500 0.079960 0.381859 4.008977 415.230147 NaN
2025-12-28 0.009177 0.024302 0.078248 0.392348 4.613730 800.179706 NaN